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Swing Trading Market Update


Weekly Market Update

by Shay Horowitz - October 3, 2005


Shogun Trading Swing Strategy
Daily analysis for October 3rd, 2005

(Use this chart and commentary to plan your trades. The goal is to trade with the market, never against it. This chart will show our expectation, projection and commentary. This is a very important tool for you.)

·    After starting a quick up trend, the market has slowed down right at resistance.

·    The 1600 level has been a big level for many months now

·    You can count almost five waves up on the short term trend, which means it is very weak or done.

·    If the market turns down, it will create a double top and start a quick down trend.

·    If we break 1600, the up trend will continue.

·    We may see a quick "fake out" break of 1600 and then a slide back.


·    The market is still bouncing back and forth between major support levels and major resistance levels.

·    We have to wait for a solid break of a major level before we see a major trend starting.


TRADING CONDITIONS

The market is having some serious problems starting and maintaining a long term trend. This has been the case all year this year. It has been called the most trend less period ever. Of course this makes it very difficult to trade trends, since they don't exist as much.

Even though it is difficult, we have had much success lately in setting up for a longer term trend, capturing the initial momentum, capturing our minimum 2% profits and then letting the stock run. If we can continue to deliver at least 2% profits on every trade, the rest of the trade is free. Taking profits at 2% and letting the rest of the trade run allows us to ring the register a bit, pay for the trade and still be in the trade in case it becomes a big winner. Make sure that you scale out on first slow down of momentum, around 2%, in order to maximize your returns.

 

MARKET "EXCITOMETER"

Use this new "Excitometer" to determine your trading aggressiveness. The higher up the number, the more excited we are about trading the market here.


Hope this helps,


Shay Horowitz - ShogunTrading


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