Swing Trading Stock Picks - Swing Ideas Weekly Market Update October 10

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by Shay Horowitz - October 10, 2005

Shogun Trading Swing Strategy
Daily analysis for October 10^th, 2005

(Use this chart and commentary to plan your trades. The goal is to trade with the market, never against it. This chart will show our expectation, projection and commentary. This is a very important tool for you.)

· Short term wedge forming right above the 1550 support level.

· If we break to the upside, the market will take another few days before breaking down

· If we break to the downside, the market will continue this down trend.

· After breaking the long term support level of 1550, the market bounced back up above it.

· If and when we break the 1550 level, we will start a long term down trend.

· Double top on the weekly chart with the right top slightly lower than the left.

· This is a definite sign of weakness.

· It is possible that the market will start a long term down trend at this point.

· We could pull back to the 1350 or 1400 level quite easily.

*TRADING CONDITIONS*
The market broke a major support level this week, the 1550 level. It broke it, teased us and then bounced back up. The fact that it broke is out there, traders know it is possible to break. Traders are now waiting to see if the market will confirm this break by breaking again. If it does, traders will jump on the short side in expectation of a long term down trend. This down trend can last a few months, since it shows on the long term weekly charts. Most of our trades now are on the short side, but we also have some on the long side. The market is forming a wedge on the very short term charts, so we can still get a quick rally up. Remember that most people are accumulating a short position, if market rallies, they will be caught off guard and will be forced to buy to cover. Do not let your guard down and don't forget about the possibility of a quick rally up.
*MARKET "EXCITOMETER"*
Use this new "Excitometer" to determine your trading aggressiveness. The higher up the number, the more excited we are about trading the market here.

Hope this helps,

Shay Horowitz - ShogunTrading

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